Saying it again: This could be the year.....
Tex Cat (Regular; 1666)
Posted on: 09-13-2013.
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For the last few months, I've been saying that this could be the year. I'd like to take a moment to (a) say it again and (b) lay out the case.
A) This could be the year. Seriously.
B) Here’s the case, in five easy pieces:
1) We have a certifiable genius running our offense.
The RR offense chart from earlier this week speaks volumes. Our coach is an offensive genius. In 15 years of running major college offenses, RichRod’s averaged less than 28 points per game three times.
2) A normal Jeff Casteel defense would be enough to keep us in virtually every game this season.
This chart tells a simple story: Jeff Casteel’s defenses ordinarily give up about 20 points per game.
Here’s what it doesn’t tell you: Casteel D's rarely give up a lot of points.
Here’s the number of times in which Casteel’s teams gave up more than 30 regular season points between 2002 and 2011 and how W. Va. did in those games:
‘02: 4 games / 1-3 (Rich Rod era)
‘03: 2 games / 1-1
‘04: 1 game / 0-1
‘05: 2 games / 1-1
‘06: 2 games / 1-1
‘07: 1 game / 1-1
‘08: 0 games / na (Bill Stewart)
‘09: 1 game / 0-1
‘10: 0 games / na
‘11: 4 games / 1-3 (Dana Holgorson)
Over that span, Casteel’s D averages giving up more than 30 about twice per year. West Va won 1/3rd of the games in which it happened.
Now, ask yourself this question: If you were sure that our opponent was going to score less than 30, how do you like our chances at winning the game? I think we’re a coin flip at worst.
3) The Pac 12 South is ordinary and, to my mind, is there for the taking.
* For all the ASu hype, consider: Todd Graham’s biggest career wins to date are over Navy and Arizona (2012), South Florida and Louisville (2011), Southern Miss, Hawaii and 4-4 Notre Dame (2010), Ball State (2009), Rice and Bowling Green (2008), Houston and BYU (2007), Rice, East Carolina and Tulsa (2006).
The kid has a huge chance at upgrading his resume this next couple weeks. Good thing because his resume is in need of an upgrade.
* UCLA won the South last year but they lost 5 games, including a humiliating beat down against Baylor in the Holiday Bowl. In that game, Baylor ran for 306 yards and threw for 188 yards. Does that mix remind you of any local teams?
Further, here’s UCLA schedule running up to our game with them: @ Oregon, @ Stanford, vs Cal, @ Arizona. They could easily come into Arizona Stadium beaten up and demoralized.
* Love Sonny and all and I’m not sleeping on Jared Goff but Cal is thin on both sides of the ball and successful freshman QB’s are rare in the world.
* Utah’s better than they’ve been but the Utes haven’t proven any staying power in the Pac 12 era. Further, they come to Tucson off back to back games against UCLA and Stanford.
* USC is coached by an infant.
* Last year, 6-3 was good enough to win the South. I’ll concede one loss on our conference slate. Would you concede any others?
4) Our schedule is mega-friendly.
* We get weeks off before our two toughest road games.
* We skip one of the conference bullies altogether.
* Our other conference road games are against teams we can either (a) reasonably expect to beat or (b) are a coin flip anyway due to in-state mojo.
5) The Pac 12 South winner could easily be find themselves in a Rose Bowl independent of the outcome of the P12 title game.
There’s a reasonable (not certain) chance that the P12 North rep will head to the BCS game this year with a P12 title win which means the P12 Runner Up would be a legit candidate for the Rose Bowl.
Alternatively, if we were to somehow win the P12 game, we’re going nowhere but Pasadena.
The safe thing to do would have been to write this post after this weekend. After all, ASu might whale on Wisconsin. UCLA might whip Nebraska. BJ Denker might overthrow a bunch of open dudes again.
Hell, Cal could even rise up against Ohio State.
Here’s the thing: None of those bits matter.
All that matters is what happens to us, starting in two weeks. There’s only one game that looks unwinnable to me (Oregon). That’s almost never true for Arizona.
And, for the first time since 1999, we actually possess a coaching advantage (like his tactics or not, DT was capable of outfoxing people).
So there it is.
Sure we could end up 7-5. I get that. But it says here that we're going to do quite a bit better than that.
I hereby declare that this could be the year.
- Saying it again: This could be the year - Tex Cat, 09-13-2013 (Views: 323; Replies: 21)
- -1 You are fucking with the football gods. You will be held accountable. [nt] - The Kriminal, 09-13-2013 (Views: 73)
- To quote the great Winston Wolf - UAFan_Joe, 09-13-2013 (Views: 142)
- Out of curiosity, where do you think we play if we follow your scenario with one change? - XrayCat, 09-13-2013 (Views: 83)
- As Sam once said to Rodney, I like the way you think. - tempecatfan, 09-13-2013 (Views: 65)
- Our 2013 football team reminds me of our 1997 basketball team. . . - BearDownAZ, 09-13-2013 (Views: 84)
- At worst, a very entertaining read. At best, prophetic. [nt] - Stallion, 09-13-2013 (Views: 37)
- we'll never get to the promised land as a favorite - Propellerhead, 09-13-2013 (Views: 89)
- From a glass half full fan, this is unreal, but COULD happen - Wildcat Jones, 09-13-2013 (Views: 80)
- +1 on "USC iscoached by an infant" +10 on the rest. [nt] - El Gato de rojo y azul, 09-13-2013 (Views: 34)
- +1 This is pure genius. After this week, you've become a legend. [nt] - Filthy Cats, 09-13-2013 (Views: 37)
- Bear Down! [nt] - gouacats, 09-13-2013 (Views: 31)
- I like the way you think Texas man. [nt] - XrayCat, 09-13-2013 (Views: 29)
- +1 ... Nice shootin', Tex. [nt] - Stu Gotz, 09-13-2013 (Views: 31)
- +1--deep thinking [nt] - Jack Handey, 09-13-2013 (Views: 36)
- Tex..Nice post a glass half full approach! I would say the game that could trigger it all - Baycat, 09-13-2013 (Views: 100)
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